Month: May 2019

There is a picture of Greg Inglis hanging in the Art Gallery of NSW right now.

The artwork is one of the finalists in this year’s Archibald Prize and depicts the South Sydney icon in a familiar pose: ball clutched in left hand with his imposing right stretched out and ready to swat away whoever comes near.

Much like Roger Federer's backhand, Inglis’ right-hand fend was so perfect during his 14 seasons in the NRL they could've framed it and hung it as well.

“But there’s far more to Greg Inglis than being an elite Indigenous athlete,” artist Imants Tillers explains in the explanatory note to his Archibald entry. “He’s a hero and role model to Indigenous communities all around Australia, and a community leader of enormous influence. His great act of grace is to engage with these communities. He teaches children and adolescents how to avoid drugs, alcohol and violence and how to adapt to the many other challenges that these disadvantaged children and adolescents face. Every human being is the greatest work of art ever created.”

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This is the picture of Greg Inglis everyone has wanted him to be: strong, unbreakable, forever dominant. In some ways, he has been. He is. He's certainly tried his best.

In reality, there’s been a fragility about Inglis since he was first fed into the rugby league machine as a 13-year-old on a scholarship at Hunter Sports High.

The news on Friday that Inglis had been admitted to an undisclosed rehab facility confirmed the game's worst kept secret since he went missing on an alcohol-fuelled bender during Magic Round in Brisbane two weeks ago — less than a month after he had retired after 14 seasons.

Souths have been discreetly and patiently working out the best course of action for their former captain since then.

Doubtless, fans will be shocked to learn that Inglis has struggled so soon after announcing he had played his final match.

He fronted Channel Nine’s post-match panel following the Rabbitohs’ big win over the Broncos, in which his former teammates celebrated tries by mimicking the “Goanna” in his honour.

He flashed his 1000-watt smile. He looked at ease with his momentous decision. He’s bravely discussed in the past his issues with mental illness but, on this night, he looked like he was going to be OK.

Those who know him best were still deeply concerned despite Souths giving him an ambassadorial and coaching job.

In the month leading up to the retirement announcement, people both inside and outside Souths had been increasingly concerned about his off-field behaviour.

Indeed, many wondered if Inglis retiring from football, with the best part of two seasons still to run on his $1 million-a-year contract, was the best thing for him.

I was one of them. A year ago, I sat down with Inglis a week after his cranky performance — and thundering tackle on Nathan Cleary — as Queensland captain in the Origin I loss to NSW at the MCG.

He revealed how the first thing he did the morning after the game was call his therapist.

“Footy has taken over again lately and, when I was given the captaincy of Queensland, it just kept going,” he said that day. “It was a snowball effect and then, on Thursday, the day after the game, I came down. I really came down hard. I had to call my therapist and have a good, long chat over the phone. I still have good chats with him to make sure everything is in check.”

Then he offered this: “I was so young when I moved away from home. I never had any life skills. Life is easier for me on the field. Footy’s my thing. I know what to do. It’s my job. It’s where I go to escape everything from the outside world.”

Like so many players, Inglis has been trapped in a profession that is brutal on the body but gives the mind structure and routine.

Because the game's other worst kept secret is that Inglis had, in recent seasons, been humming along on prescription medication, such was the pressure to stay on the field while carrying a score of injuries.

That changed when coach Wayne Bennett arrived at Redfern in December. He refused to let Inglis play through the pain of knee and shoulder injuries with the assistance of painkillers.

Were they career-ending injuries, though? It’s understood Inglis’ shoulder complaint was bad but no worse than that of other 32-year-old players who had played more than 250 NRL matches.

Souths have bristled at suggestions they cajoled their damaged captain into retirement so they could free up more than $1 million in their salary cap.

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It’s an ugly accusation. The level of self-interest in rugby league is matched only by the suspicion of others. Officials are Redfern have done a lot to keep Inglis on track over the years. More than most people will ever know.

But there’s no dispute that their football side has been an enormous beneficiary from his sudden retirement. Interestingly, Inglis’ long-time manager, Allan Gainey, has in recent months been distanced from the major decisions in Inglis’ life.

When NRL salary cap auditor Richard Gardham held a one-on-one meeting with Inglis to discuss him finishing his career, Inglis assured him that the decision was completely his.

The NRL said on Friday it had no plans to look into the Inglis’ deal while he is in rehab.

Inglis remains an inspiration for many but for all the portrayal, positioning and painting of him as an indestructible figure, the reality is he is far from it, and especially so now.

Perhaps the giveaway came last October when he fronted a media conference after he was charged with mid-range drinking driving and speeding offences — hours after being named Australian captain.

“Greg … are you OK?” one reporter asked.

Souths officials were cranky at the question. They believed it was inflammatory, with the reporter looking for a cheap sound-byte.

“Me?” Inglis replied. “Yeah, this has got nothing to do with my mental health. This has everything to do with me making one of those silly mistakes."

A mistake that was a portent of something far deeper.

The Australian sharemarket closed the week higher, despite slipping away from its post-election 11-year high as trade war concerns were mounting.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 90.7 points, or 1.4 per cent, to 6456 this week, while the broader All Ordinaries Index added 85.4 points, or 1.3 per cent, to close at 6545.6.

"The week started with a bang as the Morrison miracle and an almost unanimous vote of confidence from traders on rate cuts from the RBA gave the market a shot in the arm," said Saxo Capital Markets Australia market strategist Eleanor Creagh.

"But escalating trade tensions and stalled negotiations caught up to the ASX by week end", she said, pointing to US President Donald Trump's persistent threats against China, and China's vows to retaliate.

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The big four banks led the market gains, rallying on Monday on the back of the election result before adding to those gains after APRA planned to scrap a key home loan rule, which will increase the amount of money people can borrow. Westpac closed the week 10.7 per cent higher at $28.12, Commonwealth Bank added 7.3 per cent to end at $78.18, ANZ rose 7.7 per cent to $27.84 and NAB advanced 7.9 per cent to $25.81.

Private health providers were also buoyed by the election result. Medibank Private climbed 12.2 per cent to $3.23, NIB Holdings ended the week 14.1 per cent higher at $6.72 and Ramsay Health Care advanced 8.3 per cent to $70.25.

Companies exposed to the building sector also jumped during the week. Building products producer CSR added 20 per cent to end the week's trade at $4.14, Boral climbed 11.5 per cent to $5.23, GWA Group advanced 15.8 per cent to $3.60, Adelaide Brighton closed 13.4 per cent higher at $4.24 and developer Stockland rose 13.2 per cent to $4.45.

Retailers also welcomed the Coalition's election. Super Retail Group climbed 13 per cent to $9.23, JB Hi-Fi added 8.7 per cent to close at $27.81 and Harvey Norman rose 9.4 per cent to $4.19.

The price of oil slumped in the back end of the week as concerns about the global economy mounted in the face of the escalating trade war, pushing the energy sector lower. Woodside Petroleum fell 4 per cent to $35.70, Origin Energy declined 4.8 per cent to $7.51 and Santos dropped 4.3 per cent to $6.98.

The information technology sector was the worst performer on the market this week, as trade war jitters led investors to sell out of riskier assets. Technology One fell 22.9 per cent to $7.17 after its results fell short of the market's lofty expectations and Computershare declined 6.5 per cent to $16.62 after reaffirming its guidance, also disappointing investors.

Stock watch

Aristocrat Leisure

Morgans increased its price target on Aristocrat Leisure following its strong first-half result, saying its North American division was a standout. The broker said even with the result benefiting from a lower exchange rate and tax rate, the result was still ahead of its expectations and consensus. "Aristocrat continues to retain a dominant position in the North American market and witnessed strong growth in outright platform sales and installed gaming operations," said analyst James Lawrence. "Importantly the company has a significant opportunity in adjacent markets in North America with the moves into the Washington CDS and Video Lottery Terminal markets showing good early signs."

What moved the market

US dollar and trade

A firmer US dollar could undermine global trade, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, who point to the historical trend between the greenback's strength and movements in world goods exports. "This relationship suggests that robust trade growth and a strong US dollar are unlikely to coexist for long," the analysts noted. "Weak corporate balance sheet quality only exacerbates this. The stronger the US dollar is, the slower global trade and manufacturing activity may become. From this perspective, euro weakness may not be as positive for European manufacturers like Germany as one might think."

Crude oil

Oil prices fell heavily on Thursday as the trade war tensions racheted higher, adding fears that demand would dry up and combine with soaring supplies in the US. On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration reported US crude inventories rose to their highest level since mid-2017, pushing prices slightly lower. On Thursday, fears the trade war would be more protracted pushed the price ever lower, with crude prices record their steepest intraday decline since December 24. Crude oil prices still remain firmly elevated for the year-to-date.

Aussie dollar

The Australian dollar firmed against the US dollar on Thursday, rising back above US69¢, even as the trade war tensions between the US and China escalated. "The usual pattern when such events occur is for the US dollar to rise and Australian dollar to fall. The opposite occurred [on Thursday night]," said CBA chief currency strategist Richard Grace. "Making the Aussie's lift even more impressive was [that] the lift came despite a large drop in crude oil prices because of increased supply and inventory. Australia’s LNG export prices are tied to the price of crude oil."

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Rate cuts

Interest rate futures indicated an increased likelihood the cash rate would be at 0.75 per cent on Friday after Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said he expected the RBA to cut the cash rate three times before the end of the year. "Westpac is now forecasting three cuts in 2019 in June; August and November to push the cash rate from 1.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent and to hold at that level through 2020," he said on Friday.

Perhaps we’ll be surprised. Perhaps calls from Liberals like Arthur Sinodinos and Simon Birmingham to embrace renewables in their energy policy and dissolve the false binary between the environment and the economy will be heard within the party.

Perhaps Scott Morrison, a rare unifying figure in a party still enduring a civil war, will let them change course. Perhaps the presence of independents like Zali Steggall in Warringah and Helen Haines in Indi will inspire Liberal moderates into action.

But let’s be honest: the next parliament looks profoundly unlikely to generate any meaningful action on climate change.

So much for the climate election, you say. And on one level, that’s right. The swing away from Labor in the outer suburbs – especially pronounced in those seats experiencing heavy mortgage stress – seems emphatically economic.

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Climate change simply doesn’t drive votes in the suburbs, where it apparently ranks as a third or fourth order issue like things such as taxes and property prices.

But it’s simply not true that climate change wasn’t a major factor. It was. And it played out in wildly contradictory ways that reveal exactly where it sits in the Australian imagination. Let’s start with a significantly overlooked fact from last Saturday. The Greens had a good night, especially in the Senate, which unlike the House of Representatives is a house of proportional representation. There, the Greens gained the largest swing of any party in the country: up around 2.6 per cent, taking its vote to near 13 per cent.

All Greens senators will likely be returned: quite an achievement given most of their senators were up for election this year. It’s fair to assume this was largely a climate change vote.

Far better publicised were the significant swings against the Coalition in wealthy, inner-city seats. Indeed, the overwhelming majority of the wealthiest seats in the country – most of them Liberal seats – swung progressive. The most spectacular result was Steggall’s vanquishing of Tony Abbott emphatically on climate. But Wentworth came remarkably close to staying out of Liberal hands on similar grounds.

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Elsewhere, it is hard to see what else could have inspired these swings, given Labor’s platform was specifically designed to attack the economic interests of wealthy voters.

But then came mining. Communities that rely on resources smashed Labor. That is where Queensland came into its own, dishing out double-digit anti-Labor swings with relish in places like Capricornia (centred on Rockhampton) and Dawson (which includes Mackay and parts of Townsville). But all the talk of the Coalition’s domination of Queensland has missed that it only got 0.25 per cent of the swing. Overwhelmingly these votes flowed to One Nation and Clive Palmer, who then sent them the Coalition’s way by preferences.

Perhaps the most pronounced example of this was in the NSW coal mining seat of Hunter, where Labor lost over 14 per cent of its primary vote. The Nationals lost 2.5 per cent of theirs. One Nation, meanwhile, clocked up its highest vote in the whole country: nearly 22 per cent. It’s not far off winning the seat.

This was very likely a pro-coal, pro-Adani vote. These are communities where opposition to coal on climate grounds sounds very much like a heartless desire to see them unemployed and impoverished. No one much cared that Labor had no plans to phase out coal, or that it had still left the door open to Adani. Its climate change rhetoric made it sound coal-sceptical, driving these voters to the most anti-climate party they could find.

‘‘When climate change is a moral issue, we do quite badly. When it’s an economic issue, we do very well.’’ So said Abbott in his concession speech on Saturday in perhaps the most succinct, piercingly insightful political analysis of the issue offered all night.

What this patchwork of climate votes reveals is just how deeply, primarily economic this issue has become. The greatest predictor of your attitude to climate action is your economic exposure to it. Voting for climate change policies is now a luxury item.

If you think your job is on the line, you’ll oppose it viscerally. If your job isn’t directly affected but you’re financially stretched, you’ll either have no interest in it or fear the costs of action more than the consequences of inaction. And as long as that’s the case, climate action is doomed to the margins because only a small minority will ever be able to afford it.

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Perhaps that might have been different if, instead of hedging on Adani and coal, Labor had spent years talking directly to coal miners about what an economic transition would look like in specific detail, about what jobs will exist for the very same people whose livelihoods are currently bound up in the coal industry. This might be the most ignored aspect of our major parties’ climate change discourse.

Dunno. Maybe I’m wrong. But if it’s not that, it has to be something else that makes emissions reduction seem affordable to those who fear it isn’t, because it’s clear that climate change as a moral issue is dead, and will be for years to come. The alternative is to expect communities to vote for what they fear will be their own death. And that’s a fanciful ask.

Waleed Aly is a regular columnist and a presenter on The Project.

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It’s hard to look at people who spend the exciting, demanding parts of their sporting career lying down and think of them as super athletes.

Because we can all drive a car, Formula One can tend to look like a bunch of over-paid, carefully coiffed, slim-hipped fellows turning a wheel with their wrists and occasionally flexing their ankles. And then poncing around somewhere like Monte Carlo, where this weekend’s Grand Prix is being held, being feted by the fabulously rich.

On a rare and recent visit behind the firewall curtain, at the top-secret Mercedes-AMG Formula One facility in the UK, we were asked to consider the weight of the average human head; five kilograms. It was then pointed out that this year’s F1 cars are, at the same time as regularly exceeding 330km/h, subjecting their drivers to 5G of crushing forces.

This means that, as he takes a long, sweeping corner, Lewis Hamilton’s head effectively weighs 25kg (roughly an eight-year-old child) and would thus attempt to roll right off his shoulders if he didn’t have the neck strength of an All Black prop forward.

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“When he first came to F1 racing, back in 2007, Lewis had a 14-inch collar size, today he’s got an 18-inch collar. And that’s typical of all drivers these days, their necks just go straight down from their jaw lines, and they really have to train those muscles to do the job,” our guide, whose role is so top secret he can’t tell us his name, explains.

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“The G forces are so extreme that their organs are constantly being squished, and in Melbourne this year, at the end of the straight, Lewis was telling me that it was was pulling the tears out of his tear ducts and he could see them splashing on to his visor under braking.”

You may know that racing drivers often “flat spot” their tyres by locking up their brakes, which leaves a visible burn mark on the rubber, thus reducing its effectiveness, in any form of racing.

In F1, however, it’s more of a problem, because it causes so much vibration at the car’s higher speeds that “the muscle that holds your eyeball still in its socket can’t cope and that means the drivers can no longer see the apexes of the corners properly, so they slow down”.

Another problem that can slow a driver is the fact that, by the final stages of a race, he might have lost as much as 40 per cent of his brain function.

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It can get so hot inside an F1 car’s inhumane, carbon-fibre sarcophagi – up to 55 degrees Celsius – that drivers lose 4kg in fluids during the race, and according to Mercedes-AMG, each kilogram you sweat out costs you, temporarily of course, about 10 per cent of your brain power.

The drivers are so weak when they get out at the end of a race, in fact, that Formula One has strict maximum-weight rules for its trophies, to make sure they can lift them.

Unfortunately, the human brain has quite a lot to think about inside an F1 car, outside of constantly calculating braking distances, overtaking widths and, in the case of the legendarily dangerous Monaco circuit, just how close you can get to the barriers without destroying your car and banging yourself up quite badly.

During the 90-minute race this weekend, drivers will make more than 3600 gear changes, each, and will manage a steering wheel that looked to us, as we were fortunate enough to hold one briefly, like an IQ test for super-smart babies.

It features 25 buttons, offering some 500 different settings, some of which – like brake balance – the drivers adjust on every single lap.

We were also allowed to look inside one of Hamilton’s recent cars and it is truly astonishing how uncomfortable it is. Apparently the world champion likes to go without seat padding, so that he can “feel” the car around him. Honestly, it must feel like riding a skateboard, flat out, down one of Egypt’s bigger pyramids.

Then there’s the driving position, which is just cruel. Because weight is everything in F1, the goal is to keep the heavy part of the human – the lumbar region – as low as possible, so the driver is basically positioned as if they were lying in a bath, while the pedals are where the taps would be.

To top it off, there’s a giant battery positioned right under his backside – picture a mobile-phone battery the size of a barbecue, and giving off a proportional amount of heat. This battery gives the car’s performance an electric boost, but apparently it toasts the hell out of Hamilton’s buns, and he’s constantly complaining about it.

All of his suffering would be for nought, of course, without the stupidly large team of 1600 people who work at the headquarters in Brackley, many of them sharing four shifts, so the factory can run 24 hours, every day.

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New and very expensive carbon-fibre parts are constantly being invented, built and tested, and most of them never even make it onto the actual racing car.

In 2018, some part of the car was updated, or redesigned, on average, every 20 minutes, 24 hours a day.

“The car that starts the first race is not the same as the car that finishes the last one and if you’re not constantly improving, you fall behind. Last season we’d gained two seconds over the course of the season. If we hadn’t done that, we’d be two seconds behind everyone else, and that would mean finishing last,” our secretive guide explains.

It might look like a series of fast-moving advertising billboards, grandiosely burning fossil fuels, but there’s a lot more for Formula One than a bloke lying down to put his life on the line.

The Opera House burst into life this evening in a display of Australian flora to celebrate the opening of Vivid 2019.

Los Angeles artist Andrew Thomas Huang created the artwork, which combines floral imagery with motion-captured movement from a dancer.

"I knew I needed to make a piece that was unique to Sydney and Australia and something that was in conversation with a place I had never been to before," said Huang, who had never seen the Opera House before accepting the commission to create the work.

The Opera House display is one marquee work in an event that spans nine precincts across Sydney: the Botanical Gardens, the Rocks, Taronga Zoo, Darling Harbour, Luna Park, the Harbour, Circular Quay, Chatswood and Barangaroo.

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At Tumbalong Lights in the centre of Darling Harbour, visitors will see a set of interactive works that celebrate the 50th anniversary of the lunar landing.

The Harbour itself will be lit up by cruise ships and ferries in different colours as they pass through the tiles of an invisible grid mapped by satellite.

In the Royal Botanical Gardens there are 15 different works with "KA3323" among them. The alphabet soup-named work is a retro-futuristic contraption resembling a satellite dish.

Attendees can control the dish with a joystick to hunt for "alien" sounds across the radio spectrum.

But the event is not just about lights. There are musical and intellectual events scheduled across the festival period.

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Tourism Minister Stuart Ayres said Vivid – which runs from 6pm each night between 24 May and 15 June – would contribute millions to the state's economy.

"Vivid Sydney is incredibly popular and last year 2.25 million people attended across the 23 days and nights of the festival," Stuart Ayres said.

"With guests of all demographics, nationalities and abilities visiting Sydney for this event, it's important that everyone is considerate and enjoys the sense of community throughout the CBD and nearby precincts," Mr Ayres said.

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Two approvals Adani needs to build its contentious coal mine in the Galilee Basin should be resolved by June 13, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says.

Adani and state environment department officials had met on Thursday to agree on the deadline to finalise the environmental approvals needed for the mine to proceed, or not.

Ms Palaszczuk ordered the meeting after federal Labor's bruising defeat in regional Queensland electorates that want the jobs the mine promises.

Speaking from Cairns on Friday morning, Ms Palaszczuk said she had given the Coordinator-General responsibility for developing the timeline on the approvals.

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"The Coordinator-General has been working his guts out, frankly, and I'm very pleased that all parties have come to the table and have been working with the Coordinator-General," she said.

"So I can advise the following: in relation to the two plans, decisions are due on the following time frames.

"I know initially people thought this was months and what I'm announcing today is it's in a matter of weeks."

Adani confident

Adani Australia chief executive officer Lucas Dow said Adani was not contemplating the project being rejected.

“At this point, we are not expecting any significant surprises,” he said.

He said the company was confident it could have extra information requested by the Department of Environment and Science in place by June 13.

“We have been working at this for the better part of 18 months with the department, hand in hand, so we now look forward to finalise these and get on with it,” Mr Dow said.

“Importantly, the Coordinator-General is going to be publishing a list of other key activities and milestones for the project with dates. So that will provide us with certainty as we move ahead with the project."

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Groundwater debate

Ms Palaszczuk said the news was a "breakthrough" and she thanked everyone for sitting down "in good faith" to resolve the issues.

She said the groundwater plan was dependent on CSIRO and the Coordinator-General having detailed discussions with the CSIRO to meet the time frames laid out.

"We have approved other projects in this state, creating tens of thousands of jobs," she said.

Mr Dow on Friday said Adani had "revisited" the artesian bore trigger levels that alert the mining company to any potential impact of the mine to the threatened Doongmabulla Springs nearby.

"We have now revisited a number of trigger levels to ensure that we have an early warning on any potential impact."

Call for clarity on jobs

The Premier said it was up to Adani to communicate with the people of Queensland on the number of jobs predicted to be created by the proposed mega-mine in the Galilee Basin.

"Mining communities, resource communities want to know that local employment is front and centre," she said.

Ms Palaszczuk said she had spoken with the CFMMEU to work with them on disagreements around the Adani Carmichael mine processes.

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“I had actually a good conversation last night to the national president of the CFMMEU and I talk to people regularly from all different groups and, you know, at the end of the day, they want jobs,” she said.

“They want good, decent jobs for their members but they also want projects that meet the laws of the land.

“Now we’ve got some firm time frames for decision-making to happen in relation to this project, and our laws – the Commonwealth and state – are strict.

“We need to make sure that projects do stack up and the projects that are getting the approvals are meeting the requirements under our laws.”

Rail line and black-throated finch

Mr Dow said Queensland’s Coordinator-General would clarify issues to allow Adani to move ahead with the 200-kilometre rail line it needed to build from its mine site north of Clermont out to Aurizon’s rail corridor to the Abbot Point port.

Ms Palaszczuk said the black-throated finch plan was due by May 31, and the groundwater management plan was due by June 13.

Mr Dow said Adani had provided seven updates to its black-throated finch management study and 11 versions of the important groundwater study to protect the artesian springs near the large mine.

“I must reiterate [the Department of Environment and Science is] the most independent regulator and they will have to make up their own decision.”

On Thursday, Adani said it would take two years after approvals were granted before coal would be dug from the Carmichael mine.

Ms Palaszczuk said the deadlines were set by the Coordinator-General and she would not be drawn on whether she would make a final decision personally if the deadlines were not met.

'Stop Adani' campaign to continue

Stop Adani, the campaign against the major mine, announced it was redoubling its campaign efforts in response to the announcement.

Mackay Conservation Group co-ordinator Peter McCallum said Stop Adani was "not going away".

“The election result is not a mandate for Premier Palaszczuk to ignore science and environmental laws and fast-track plans that put at risk Queensland’s water," he said.

“The delay in Adani’s plans being approved is because they’ve been grossly inadequate."

Trad adamant Adani decision 'needs to stack up'

Deputy Premier Jackie Trad, who nearly lost her South Brisbane seat to the Greens at the last election, still would not definitively say she supported the coal mine.

“This [Adani] is a decision that has been made by the government, I am a member of the government,” she said.

“I think taking action on climate change is incredibly important, but it needs for people of Queensland, people of Australia, to be unified behind what that action is.

“We have always said it needs to stack up economically and it needs to stack up environmentally, and as soon as it does that, then it can proceed.”

– with Tony Moore and Lydia Lynch

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Is the world's most bitterly contested coal mine finally getting the go-ahead?

After Labor suffered heavy losses in coal-mining regions in Saturday’s Australian federal elections, the Carmichael project looks to be getting closer than ever to approval. In the view of the government's resources minister Matt Canavan, the pit being developed by Adani, a unit of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani’s business empire, is all systems go.

There's a rarely discussed problem with this, though: The numbers on Carmichael don't stack up – and haven't for most of the past decade, despite the mine becoming a high-profile proxy for broader fights over fossil fuels among politicians, lobbyists and environmentalists. (An Adani spokeswoman said our assumptions were incorrect, but didn't dispute any specific figures or provide alternative ones. 'The Carmichael Project economics are strong and are projected to remain strong,' she wrote.)

The most important factor in determining coal pricing is its energy content. In the case of Carmichael, we've known since Adani's initial regulatory applications in 2010 that this is around 20.7 gigajoules or 4,950 kilocalories per kilogram.

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That's roughly in line with the stuff sold by Indonesia's PT Adaro Energy. At present, Adaro makes about $US66 of revenue per metric tonne of coal sold, a number pretty consistent with charts published in its investor materials. Put that together with the 10 million tons a year (mtpa) output from the first stage at Carmichael(4) and you have something like $US660 million of annual revenue.

Next, subtract the costs of blasting, shovelling, washing, blending and loading the coal. At BHP's lean Mount Arthur mine north of Sydney, cash costs have averaged about $US48 over the past 18 months, toward the bottom end for Australian coal mines:

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Adjusting that for the cost of transporting the coal to port on third-party networks comes to about $US50 a tonne of operating costs, or $US500 million for the whole project, enough to leave $US160 million of gross profit. (Adani in January estimated a figure of $US39 a tonne at port, which seems implausibly low.)

Then consider the cost of building the mine and a separate 200 kilometre railway line from Queensland's Galilee Basin, where it's situated. Comparable projects suggest about $US1.8 billion for the mine, pretty much in line with figures of $2 billion cited in news reports. The railway would likely be another $US1 billion, for a total $US1.9 billion capital project.

To get an idea of what that would cost to fund with debt, look at bonds for Adani's Abbot Point terminal, a coal export port in northern Queensland. They're currently yielding 6.88 per cent, which would mean $US131 million a year of interest costs. On top of that you have to depreciate the asset and amortize the debt itself; let's assume you depreciate over 30 years and amortise over 10 and the result is $US250 million.

Add all that together and Adani is losing $US220 million a year: It would cost about $US88 to produce a tonne of coal that would sell for $US66 on the open market. Those challenging numbers (rather than pressure from environmentalists) look like the best explanation for why banks have refused to lend to Carmichael. Adani has promised to fund the project from its own balance sheet.

All this raises the question of why everyone is so adamant that this project is going ahead.

For the Morrison government, the attractions are obvious: Carmichael is a potent wedge issue that may have just helped swing last weekend's federal election in its favor. For environmentalists, too, the prospect of an operating Adani mine represents a totemic fundraising and rallying opportunity. The Labor party, meanwhile, can't risk alienating the coal industry by declaring that this emperor has no clothes.

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What of Adani itself? We've speculated in the past that keeping the project on life support helps avoid a painful billion-dollar writedown; perhaps a sufficient level of taxpayer subsidy might be enough to salvage something from the wreckage.

The company has argued that coal market prices don't matter because it intends to burn the product in its own generators. But that doesn't sidestep basic economics: Adani has lost an aggregate 107 billion rupees ($2.23 billion) over the past decade, and would likely be doing even worse if it were buying overpriced coal from Carmichael.

And yet the belief that only environmentalists and obstructionist politicians are holding Carmichael back continues to shamble on. Comparable projects like Glencore's Wandoan have been mothballed for years.

As we've argued, investors seem to be fleeing coal finance as the economics get increasingly challenging. Yet away from the spotlight, Carmichael-scale mines with higher-quality coal and access to existing infrastructure such as MACH Energy Australia's Mount Pleasant and Whitehaven Coal's Vickery are quietly coming online to replace production declines elsewhere.

That's not why Carmichael is a lightning rod, though. Opening up a whole new coal basin like the Galilee represents a very different image for the future of coal than adding niche projects – suggesting coal power isn't being "phased out, potentially sooner than expected" (as BHP suggested this week) but on the brink of a bright new future. Letting go of that pipe dream is proving remarkably painful.

Bloomberg

Whisky is considered a gentleman's drink – reserved for times of congratulations and clever conversations with life-long friends.

So it is jarring that this drink should be at the centre of a brutal ASX-boardroom brawl that came to a head this week.

The business, Tasmanian-based Australian Whisky Holdings, produces some of the world's best whisky leveraging the Apple Isle's carefully cultivated image of bucolic colonial-era craftsmanship that has worked well for other food and liquor products. There is even a Tasmanian Whisky Trail.

The rewards can be large. International demand for Tasmania's healthy and unique foods has turned a small company like infant formula producer Bellamy's into a $1 billion business.

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But AWH has been roiled in the past few months amid a shareholder civil war that has seen the board cleared out, a chief executive depart and the company's second largest investor seize effective control of the business.

The key players are colourful and no strangers to corporate cut and thrust.

The man painted as the agitator behind the change is rich-lister turned activist investor Bruce Neill. On 14 March his company Quality Life requested a shareholder meeting to remove four of five directors. By May 20 he marshalled the 75 per cent support he needed to roll the $64 million company's board. And so the night before the May 21 meeting chairman Terry Cuthbertson, ex-Coca Cola executive, Peter Herd, and former Rene Rivkin sidekick, Gary Mares, all resigned as directors.

That left only two directors – Bill Lark, a man whose surname adorns one of the company's best known products and who is known as the "godfather of Australian whisky", and American and thoroughbred enthusiast Stuart Grant, whose horses are trained by his friend Gai Waterhouse.

Grant faced the music at the shareholder meeting at the Royal Automobile Club of Australia in Sydney on Tuesday. He was comprehensively voted off the board. Lark then carried through with a promise to quit in protest.

For good measure the company's acting chief executive and chief financial officer Brendan Waights also resigned. The entire board and top management gone in one malty gulp.

As the smoke cleared it became clear that Neill had leveraged his 9 per cent holding to get a firm grip on the company's direction. The three new directors have some impressive pedigree. David Dearie is a former senior executive at Treasury Wines while Geoff Bainbridge was co-founder of hamburger chain Grill'd.

Warren Randall has the unofficial title as the "King of Australian Wine" as the man behind the Seppeltsfield wine business in the Barossa Valley.

So what was the dispute all about? That depends on who you ask. The business itself bears all the hallmarks of a maturing enterprise.

It has been loss-making but acquisitive and over the past twelve months has increased its revenue from $179,000 in second half of 2017 to $2.82 million in the corresponding period last year as it swallowed the Lark and Nant brands and paid down debt.

"It was a contest to see who had a bigger dick between Bruce and Terry," says Grant.

"This is not two factions having different visions – this was all ego-driven."

Grant is a Delaware-based lawyer who owns about a dozen horses with Waterhouse and remains the company's sixth-largest shareholder with 3.5 per cent.

Grant says animosity had been simmering away for years, but a key turning point occurred last November, when the Cuthbertson-led board raised $5 million through a share placement to Hong Kong-based ACE COSMO Developments.

The strategy was designed to inject cash into the company for future expansion and draw on the Hong Kong shareholders' connections to push into Asian markets.

"Bruce felt the expansion diluted the 'Tasmanianness' of the business," says Grant.

"My view is that the Tasmanianness was key to the whisky itself but not the origin of the stockholder base … Bill Lark agreed, and you can't get more Tasmanian than Bill Lark."

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Lark is certainly something of a legend. He is the only southern hemisphere distiller inducted into the World Whisky Hall of Fame, and was until recently an AWH board member. Its other brands include Overeem, Old Kempton, and Nant, which was purchased out of its own whisky barrel scandal.

Grant and Neill knew each other for years before their whisky connection as Neill is a part-owner of the Cressfield horse stud in New South Wales. The media-shy Neill entered his horse for the $13 million Everest race in 2017 along with high-flying Sydney racing identity Damion Flower.

Mr Flower was this week charged with cocaine trafficking. His lawyer has indicated he will contest the charges. The horse's name – Clearly Innocent. Neill has no connection to the cocaine charges.

Neill did not respond to requests for comment but announcements to the ASX may reveal some of his thinking.

In March, Neill demanded the resignation of four of the five incumbent directors in a bid to install directors nominted by him. At that point, AWH was already dealing with the recent departure of its chief executive Christopher Malcolm.

In November, 2018, Malcolm gave a presentation to board members at the company's George Street offices in Sydney titled "All Things Wonderful in Tasmanian Single Malt Whisky".

But then in February he abruptly departed the company effective immediately.

In Grant's telling Neill "went shareholder-to-shareholder for several months" including trips overseas, garnering support for his move.

In mid-May as Neill's manouvering became apparent the AWH board asked the Takeovers Panel – which regulates corporate activity – to intervene in what it believed may have been an "inappropriate" campaign by Neill.

"I don't know what promises were made to people for their vote," says Grant.

The board proposed a compromise where two directors would step down and two directors from Neill's camp would replace them. Lark would keep his spot.

The offer was rejected.

"It had got personal by that point," says Grant.

The incumbent leadership appealed to shareholders and defended its record.

The board had "reduced debt to strengthen the group's balance sheet" while "respecting the company's Tasmanian connection", according to company documents lodged with the ASX.

All of it culminated in Tuesday's showdown. Dearie chaired the dramatic meeting, which he describes as "odd".

"It was very official and straight to the point … the former directors were there and I spoke to each of them."

He says he was approached by Neill a couple of months ago about taking a board seat but claims some support from both sides.

Dearie says AWH needs clarity and direction, a cohesive capital structure, better branding and to move into key markets of Asia and America.

"I have got vast experience in the wine and spirits sector. I spoke with Bruce Neill and with Terry Cuthbertson and both were keen on me joining the board in some capacity."

Grant points out the new directors did not join without their own baggage.

Bainbridge went through an public acrimonious courtroom battle with his Grill'd co-founder, while Dearie resigned after three years as boss of Treasury Wines boss after the company struggled to turn around its American operations.

The new look board will be put to an immediate test finding a new CEO, presumably a gentleman.

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Notorious Russell Street bomb-accused Craig Minogue has refused to give a DNA sample to police after being charged with abducting and raping two women in the 1980s, while his alleged accomplice has failed to front court.

Police will apply to the court to force Mr Minogue to provide a sample after charging him and Peter Komiazyk, who was acquitted of the 1986 Russell Street bombing, over the rapes in 1985 and 1986.

The two men are accused of committing a brutal assault on a 19-year-old woman in Nunawading the night before the bombing, which killed Constable Angela Taylor, 21, and injured 22.

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The alleged victim was inside the Russell Street police complex giving a statement when a bomb, concealed in a Holden Commodore parked outside the building, exploded around lunchtime on March 27, 1986.

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Mr Komiazyk, who used to go by the name Peter Reed, refused to face Melbourne Magistrates Court on Friday where prosecutor Stephen Devlin said police were assessing information from phone taps.

He and Mr Minogue are also accused of forcing a young woman into a car on Chapel Street, South Yarra, and raping her on November 22, 1985.

Police allege both women were showered after they attacked, and then dumped in streets near where they were abducted.

Both men face 38 charges including abduction by force and aggravated rape.

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Mr Komiazyk faced court on Thursday night and was refused bail.

He was due to return to court on Friday, but his lawyer told the court he had asked to remain in his cell.

The 61-year-old appeared bloodied and bruised when he fronted court in a ripped T-shirt on Thursday night.

He was arrested by Special Operations Group officers on Thursday outside his psychologist’s office in Kalorama, in the Dandenong Ranges.

Police told the court on Thursday night the rape cases were reopened in 2017 following a breakthrough with DNA evidence.

They also allege Stanley Brian Taylor, who was jailed over Russell Street bombing, was also involved in the 1986 rape. Taylor died in jail in 2016.

Mr Komiazyk's lawyer, Steven Pica, raised concerns on Thursday night over the way his client was arrested, and told the hearing his client's car windows were broken and his vehicle was rammed before he was taken into custody.

Mr Komiazyk lives on a disability pension and cares for his 13-year-old son, his lawyer said.

Police last month made a fresh call for information over the attacks and offered a $350,000 reward for information.

The victim of the Nunawading attack, who cannot be identified for legal reasons, was walking on Ashwood Drive about 9.30pm on March 26, 1986.

She was heading to her boyfriend's parents' house when she was dragged into a car containing four men.

She was threatened with a knife, blindfolded and gagged, before being driven a short distance to an unknown property and sexually assaulted.

The teenager was dumped under a parked car on Mariana Avenue in Ringwood East around midnight.

The victim in the South Yarra attack was an 18-year-old schoolgirl who selling flowers on Chapel Street.

About 10pm, she was allegedly dragged into a car on Bray Street, blindfolded and gagged before being taken to an unknown property and sexually assaulted.

She was dumped on Yarra Boulevard in Richmond about 1am the next day.

The incident had a profound impact on the victim's life. She died aged 41 in 2008.

Mr Minogue will return to Melbourne Magistrates Court on June 14.

The Morrison government wasted little time putting the heat back on the energy sector after its election victory, committing to hardline interventionist action designed to reform and punish the power industry.

Analysts have already called the Coalition's win "a negative” for energy companies, and warned it could make power prices more volatile.

The energy stoush began in 2017, when AGL reaffirmed its intention to close its Hunter Valley-based Liddell coal-fired power station in 2022, raising fears it could create an energy shortage similar to the experience after the closure of Victoria's Hazelwood power station earlier that year.

This drove energy prices to record highs and ignited a battle between AGL and the government to extend the life of the Liddell power plant to keep the lights on.

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As part of this battle, the Morrison government set out a raft of new policies before the election to lower historically high power bills and prevent energy shortages.

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The proposed measures included giving the government power to break up energy companies found to be behaving poorly in the market and force them to sell off assets to reduce their footprint; the creation of a new, fixed basic electricity price for households not already on a discount offer; new safety nets to remove energy companies' ability to charge consumers excessive late fees, and a new reference price to compare discounts offers.

They were introduced after the government dumped its own energy and emissions policy aimed at driving down both power prices and greenhouse gas levels, the National Energy Guarantee (NEG).

Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor also made an ambitious pledge to slash wholesale prices – what generators charge retailers for electricity – by up to a quarter.

Energy providers called many of these rules market-wrecking actions, particularly the forced divestment power, known as the government’s ‘big stick’.

'Big stick' prevails

The government had managed to get most of these new rules underway ahead of the election, apart from the ‘big stick’. Most should come into force on 1 July.

With pre-election polls predicting a Labor victory, the energy industry had begun planning for a Bill Shorten government, expecting many of the Coalition's harshest policies to be dropped.

Instead, it found itself blindsided by the Coalition victory and the realisation its harsh interventions would be implemented.

The big power companies swiftly urged Prime Minister Scott Morrison to drop these policies, hoping to reset the relationship with the government and move beyond the antagonism that had plagued the energy debate over the last three years.

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To no avail: The government renewed its hardline approach to the industry on Wednesday, focusing on energy giant AGL, and threatening tough action against power retailers.