‘If you don’t get this right, nothing else may matter’

Pete Buttigieg is facing the first serious test of his underdog presidential campaign, with a crisis at home overtaking his mayorship and putting into sharp relief his struggle to gain traction with voters of color.

The South Bend, Ind., mayor has jumped on and off the campaign trail over the past week trying to balance the needs of a hurting city — where a police officer shot and killed a black man last week — with a fast-paced 2020 schedule building up to the first Democratic primary debates and a critical fundraising deadline.

It may be a make-or-break moment for Buttigieg, his supporters say. What “this crisis does is it gives us a window into the kind of president he would be, for better or worse,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), who endorsed Buttigieg this spring and said he thinks the mayor has done well so far. “How does he react in a crisis, [that’s] when the real personality comes up.”

Buttigieg’s schedule over the past week illustrates his delicate balancing act: The mayor canceled a policy rollout and a fundraising trip to California to stay in South Bend last Sunday, meeting throughout the week with community leaders and attending a vigil for Eric Logan, who was killed. But on Friday and Saturday, he pulled double duty.

He spoke to the National Association of Latino Elected Officials in Miami before returning to South Bend that night to speak to protesters marching from the South Bend Police Department. Again, on Saturday, Buttigieg flew to South Carolina to speak to the state Democratic Party’s convention — before returning home, again, for a fiery, emotional Sunday town hall.

“Candidly, if a senator or a congressman is out campaigning, they’re not as readily missed than a chief executive of a city,” said David Axelrod, who served as President Barack Obama’s chief strategist. “That’s a pressure he feels more acutely than others, but that’s the nature of the race.”

On Monday afternoon, Buttigieg left for Miami, where he’ll appear in a Democratic National Committee presidential debate on Thursday.

Strategists warned that to emerge unscathed from the debates, Buttigieg must “manage the concerns of the residents in his city” who have “real questions” about Buttigieg’s handling of police accountability in the past, said Jamal Simmons, a Democratic strategist who has worked on several presidential campaigns.

“If I were him, I would focus on getting this right because if you don’t get this right, nothing else may matter,” Simmons said.

Buttigieg has already faced criticism for his outreach and record with black voters, including his decision to remove the city’s first black police chief in 2011 and the impact his signature housing initiative had on minority neighborhoods. The police shooting of Logan has put new focus on a series of troubling racial incidents involving South Bend officers in recent years, as well as a difficult history of race relations in the city that some residents say Buttigieg has not done enough to address.

Buttigieg has also triggered pushback in the other direction: On Monday, South Bend’s Fraternal Order of Police released a statement saying Buttigieg "has in no way unified the community" and charging that his "focus on this incident is solely for his political gain and not the health of the city he serves."

Over the weekend, Buttigieg said he supported an independent federal investigation into Logan’s death. Buttigieg’s campaign also pointed to several initiatives the mayor implemented during his tenure to address concerns around the city’s policy department, including the introduction of body cameras (though the officer who shot Logan was not using his at the time), the adoption of a new duty manual governing police conduct, and increased efforts to diversify officer recruitment. Buttigieg also selected a majority-minority Board of Public Safety, which is charged with disciplinary action for police officers.

“The many well-intentioned steps we have taken, locally and across the country, have not succeeded. We have not done enough,” Buttigieg said to supporters in an email on Monday morning. “It is clear we need to implement bolder and more aggressive actions moving forward.”

The moment also demands Buttigieg, a solutions-oriented former McKinsey consultant, showcase a different side of the whiz-kid persona he brandished this spring while rising up in the Democratic presidential polls.

But that’s not something that comes easily for Buttigieg, who is “not a guy who puts his emotions on display,” Axelrod said. “His strength is that he’s cool, calm and collected, but the flip side is, he’s not terribly emotive.”

During Sunday’s town hall, Buttigieg solemnly listened and responded to shouted questions. But when he spoke to the press later that evening, Buttigieg appeared visibly shaken, said that it was “my job to face it” and that he was “sick of these things being talked about in political terms, in theoretical terms” because “it is people’s lives.”

“I know Pete as a compassionate man, so he’s going to have to make sure to work extra hard to show that side of him,” said Steve Benjamin, the African American mayor of Columbia, S.C., who hasn’t endorsed in the 2020 primary. “Crisis creates opportunities.”

Buttigieg’s weakness with Democratic voters of color “has been an emerging narrative for him,” said Karen Finney, who served as a spokeswoman for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

“It highlights something people were already starting to question about him,” Finney said. “All of that raises the stakes for Pete Buttigieg, and how he ultimately handles this.”

The latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll found Buttigieg at 7 percent support among Democratic primary voters — but only 1 percent among African Americans.

Buttigieg’s allies and supporters believe he is doing exactly what he should be doing: listening to constituents in South Bend.

“He is leaving the campaign trail often to make sure that he is doing what he was elected to do in South Bend. He has taken major steps to promote transparency in this process,” said Jennifer Holdsworth, a Democratic strategist who ran Buttigieg’s 2017 campaign for DNC chairman. “His No. 1 goal is to listen and to work to bring everyone in the community together to achieve transparency, fairness and justice in this investigative process.”

Multiple Democratic strategists and Buttigieg supporters expect the mayor to be confronted about the shooting and his relations with African Americans during the presidential debate on Thursday, probably by one of his competitors in the primary.

"He’s listening. That’s good. He’s admitted that that is a problem. That’s good," said Rev. Joe Darby, a prominent South Carolina pastor, who noted that Buttigieg could "do a better job of empathizing" with the African American community in South Bend. "He needs to be proactive about handling this thing," he said.

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House and Senate GOP ready for battle to woo Liz Cheney

Almost immediately after Sen. Mike Enzi announced his retirement over the weekend, some of Liz Cheney’s House colleagues began pleading with her to stick around — while acknowledging that the Wyoming Senate seat is probably hers if she wants it.

“I texted her when I found out about it and said, ‘Hey, you’ve got some decisions to make, but we love having you here,’” Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) said. “That just shows how effective of a legislator she is, and how good a person she is if everyone wants her to stay.”

Davis isn’t the only lawmaker courting Cheney, the No. 3 House Republican and one of the GOP’s most prominent national security voices.

“We actually were in the airport together and I just encouraged her and told her I was going to say a little prayer for her,” Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) said. “I encouraged her to look at it, that we would love to have her over here.”

The tug of war over the second-term congresswoman underscores the serious woman problem in the party, with Republicans on both ends of the Capitol eager to bolster their relatively thin ranks of female lawmakers. House and Senate GOP leaders also want to promote more female candidates in 2020 after a midterm elections in which suburban women fled the party in droves and when Donald Trump will be on the top of the party’s tickets.

Cheney is one of just 13 GOP women in the House, a number that stands in stark contrast to the record-breaking number of women serving in the House as Democrats. If the Wyoming Republican jumps ship for the Senate, she would leave a glaring hole in the caucus: Cheney is often the only woman surrounded by a sea of men at leadership news conferences.

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans have made electing more GOP women a high priority. Cheney, a prolific fundraiser and daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, would be a prize recruit for Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

But the 52-year-old Cheney has months to decide. The filing deadline isn’t until May 2020, and Cheney — who briefly launched a primary challenge against Enzi in 2014 — appears to be in no rush, telling reporters she is focused on her current job. Plus, the rest of the potential field is frozen until she weighs in.

“I don’t have any announcements to make about that other than to say how privileged I am to call Mike Enzi a friend. … He’s going to be in the Senate for another 18 months,” Cheney told reporters Wednesday. “I look forward to continuing doing work for people back in Wyoming.”

That leaves House and Senate Republicans plenty of time to plead their case — and some have already begun to make their pitch.

Cheney’s colleagues say she has a bright future in the House, where she has quickly risen through the leadership ranks. As a sophomore, Cheney was elected last year to serve as Republican Conference chairwoman. She’s taken steps to reshape the party’s messaging arm and won praise for becoming the first Republican leader to call out Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) for racist remarks earlier this year.

Some Republicans tell POLITICO privately that Cheney is their preferred messenger — even more so than House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) — at what feels like a low point for the party after a brutal midterm election cycle that decimated their ranks of female lawmakers in the House. Others say they can envision her becoming Speaker Cheney one day.

That’s why it would sting to lose Cheney to the Senate. And the blow to the House GOP would come sooner than 2020; Cheney would have to step down from her leadership post if she seeks higher office because of new party rules that took effect this year.

“Liz is one of the brightest stars in our conference. … It would be a huge loss for us,” Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Ind.) said. “But she would be a wonderful addition to the Senate.

“But of course, a big, big, loss for us,” she added for extra emphasis.

While many members hope she’ll stay in the lower chamber, they also say the decision should be based on whatever is best for her.

“She is valuable here. And I think there will be a [recruiting effort] to keep her. And there’s nothing wrong with that,” said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a former chairman of the House GOP’s campaign arm. “But she’s got to think what’s best for her family and herself first.”

While climbing the House leadership ladder could be an attractive option for Cheney, a high-profile Senate seat would put her in the national spotlight — potentially catapulting her to become a future secretary of Defense or even president.

It’s a reality that Senate Republicans are likely to whisper to her.

Welcoming Cheney to the Senate would provide a major boost to the Republican Conference, GOP senators say, which has long struggled to shake its “boy’s club” reputation.

“That would definitely help,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas.) said. “And she’s got pretty good foreign policy, national security chops. She’d be a great addition.”

Josh Holmes, a top McConnell adviser, called Cheney a rock star but said any recruiting push wouldn’t “put a thumb on Liz Cheney.”

“She’ll make her decision based on however she wants to make it,” he said.

Still, female Republicans in the Senate said they would be thrilled to have Cheney join their ranks.

"I think she would be wonderful,” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa.) said. “I think she’s just a really great asset in the House and not making any decision, but I think she’d be a phenomenal voice in the Senate.

“More women, too,” she added.

Marianne LeVine and James Arkin contributed to this report.

‘Allowable But Not Advisable’: Air Force And Congress Review Stays At Trump Resort

Donald Trump during a press conference at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland in 2016 before becoming president. The U.S. Air Force confirms it’s investigating claims that aircrews violated internal rules by staying at the resort. Trump says he had no knowledge of the stopovers.

President Trump and the U.S. Air Force are trying to tamp down questions about conflicts of interest that erupted over stays by Air Force personnel at Trump’s luxury golf resort in Turnberry, Scotland.

The House oversight committee is investigating, and Air Force spokesman Brig. Gen. Edward Thomas says the Air Force is reviewing “all guidance pertaining to selection of airports and lodging accommodations during international travels.”

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The reviews follow a Politico report about a seven-member crew of a C-17 Globemaster III cargo plane staying at Turnberry earlier this year.

The crew was flying the C-17 from Alaska to Kuwait and stopped for refueling at Glasgow Prestwick Airport, a struggling commercial airport that is key to Turnberry’s business model. The airport entered into an official partnership with the Trump Organization in 2014.

Before taking office, President Trump turned day-to-day operations of his companies over to his adult sons. But breaking with the practice of past presidents, he did not divest or otherwise distance himself from his businesses.

Trump has continued to promote his properties and brand, visiting his golf resorts repeatedly, and he even publicly suggested that next year’s G-7 summit be held at one of his golf resorts in Florida.

Vice President Pence was criticized last week for staying at a Trump golf resort on the western coast of Ireland instead of in Dublin, where he had meetings.

In a tweet, Trump claimed to know nothing about “an Air Force plane landing at an airport (which I do not own and have nothing to do with) near Turnberry Resort (which I do own).” He added that the service members staying at his resort “have good taste!”

It wasn’t just one plane. Since President Trump took office, military aircraft stops at Prestwick Airport have increased dramatically, according to Air Force statistics.

Air Mobility Command aircraft stopped at Prestwick 95 times in 2015. So far this year there have been 259 stops, 220 of them involving overnight stays.

The Air Force didn’t indicate how many of the overnight stays were at the Trump Turnberry resort, but that figure does include the stay earlier this year by the C-17 crew highlighted by Politico.

Thomas, the Air Force’s top spokesman, said in a statement that “while initial reviews indicate that aircrew transiting through Scotland adhered to all guidance and procedures, we understand that U.S. service members lodging at higher-end accommodations, even if within government rates, might be allowable but not advisable.”

The House oversight committee, which in June requested documents from the secretary of defense, said in a letter that “given the president’s continued financial stake in his Scotland golf courses,” there are questions about “the president’s potential receipt of U.S. or foreign government emoluments in violation of the U.S. Constitution and … other serious conflict of interest concerns.”

A Democratic National Committee aide told NPR that the committee has been investigating the incident outlined in the Politico report “and other similar reports.” The aide added that so far the Defense Department “has not produced a single document in this investigation. The Committee will be forced to consider alternative steps if the Pentagon does not begin complying voluntarily in the coming days.”

When the partnership between Prestwick Airport and the Trump Organization was announced, a press release explained that people visiting Turnberry, which is 20 miles from the airport, would be provided transfers via “the luxurious Trump helicopter, executive cars or private hire.”

“The synergy of Trump Turnberry and Prestwick Airport working together is crucial for both parties as we further develop golf and tourism in Ayrshire and Scotland,” Ralph Porciani, the general manager of Trump Turnberry, was quoted as saying.

A U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster, like the one that made an overnight refueling stop in Scotland near a golf resort owned by President Trump.

Thomas explained that C-17 aircraft have increasingly used Prestwick as a stopover because it has 24-hour operations, making it a more viable option for aircraft headed to and from the Middle East and Afghanistan.

Many military stopover locations, he explained, have imposed increasingly restrictive operating hours. In 2017, he said, Air Mobility Command issued a directive to flight crews to increase efficiency. Prestwick was listed as a top-five stopover location due to favorable weather and less traffic from other aircraft.

According to the House oversight committee letter, since October 2017, the Defense Logistics Agency has purchased $11 million in jet fuel from Prestwick Airport.

“This airport has a large parking area, is open 24/7/365, and has been contracted by DoD for fuel at standardized prices,” Thomas explained.

Ethics watchers cry foul

Even with all these explanations, ethics watchers — who have been repeatedly critical of President Trump — say this episode is another reminder of the hazards of a president who continues to own a private business and profit from government business.

“To believe USAF’s claim that stays at Turnberry were normal, you’d have to believe: it’s a coincidence Trump owns it, emoluments are OK, no hotels under $166 were within 30 miles of the airport, the cost of meals + incidentals is irrelevant and an appearance of corruption is fine,” tweeted Walter Shaub, a former top government ethics official and Trump critic.

Anita Hill says she could see herself voting for Biden

Anita Hill said in an interview that she could see herself voting for Joe Biden, despite her dissatisfaction with his less-than-full-throated apologies to her.

When asked by NBC’s Andrea Mitchell whether she would consider voting for Biden if he becomes the Democratic nominee, Hill replied: “Of course I could.”

Hill also said in the excerpt released Thursday that none of her comments intended to put Biden and President Donald Trump on the same moral plane. She added that she doubted her rhetoric had affected Biden’s popularity.

“I’m not sure that anything I said has hurt Joe Biden’s campaign,” Hill said. “He is still leading in the polls against Donald Trump, and all the other candidates on the Democratic ticket.” More of Hill‘s interview will air Thursday night on “NBC Nightly News.”

Biden has been heavily criticized for how he treated Hill in 1991 when he was chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and she was testifying about her sexual harassment allegations against Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas.

During the televised hearings, Biden allowed Hill to face intense questioning from an all-male, all-white panel of senators.

In March of this year, Biden expressed remorse over how he handled the spectacle, saying, “To this day, I regret I couldn’t get her the kind of hearing she deserved.”

He also called Hill earlier this year to discuss the controversy, but Hill did not characterize his words as an apology and told The New York Times she would only be satisfied when she knows there “is real change and real accountability.”

Hill, now a Brandeis University professor, said in the NBC interview that her point in discussing Biden’s treatment of her was “to make the public aware of the urgency of this issue.”

“We’ve had years now to grapple with this as a society and I think we need to take advantage of the moment,” Hill said.

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Debate deadline day: 20 candidates set to crowd the stage in Detroit

The field is set for the second round of Democratic primary debates — and a number of candidates will go onstage knowing it could be their last.

Twenty candidates have qualified for two nights of debates in Detroit on July 30-31, according to a POLITICO analysis — including Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who missed the first debates in June but vaulted onto the stage after Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign ended. Mike Gravel, the former Alaska senator, also accrued the requisite number of donors to qualify for the debate, but Bullock has the tiebreaker for the 20th and final slot: support in more public polls.

POLITICO projects these 20 candidates will appear in the Detroit debates: Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang.

But aside from the five candidates polling at the top of the field and raising the most money, the future is uncertain for the Democratic presidential field. Many are at risk of running out of money unless they get a spike of fundraising and attention — and this debate could be their last chance to attract eyeballs before the usually quieter summer months. Harris and Castro, in particular, got campaign-changing jolts of support and fundraising after the June debates.

Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee’s polling and fundraising thresholds for later debates are set to rise significantly, putting pressure on lesser-known candidates.

On Wednesday, the DNC will inform the presidential campaigns who has made the debate stage. CNN will then host a live drawing on Thursday evening to determine which candidates will appear on which nights.

Qualification for the July debate closes at midnight Tuesday, but the composition of the public polls released so far make it all but impossible for the debate lineup to shift before then.

CNN has not said how it will divide the candidates, though the network’s process will be at least partially random. For the first debates, NBC News divided the candidates into two groups based on their polling averages and evenly and randomly divided candidates from each group across the two nights.

A spokesperson from CNN declined to answer specific questions about the randomization process, telling POLITICO that “more details will be released later this week.” The DNC declined to answer questions on the process.

In addition to Gravel, some other current and former Democratic officeholders did not qualify for the July debates: Wayne Messam, Seth Moulton and Joe Sestak. Tom Steyer, the billionaire financier who just entered the presidential campaign, also failed to qualify.

They are missing out on an opportunity to shift the course of their campaigns. Castro collected nearly 40 percent of his entire second-quarter fundraising haul after a strong performance during the first debate, pouring money into a campaign account that was starting to empty. Harris also finished the second quarter on a fundraising surge after clashing with Biden, raising millions of dollars in the hours and days after their June debate.

It won’t get easier to get a guaranteed national audience for many of these candidates, and the shift could halt some campaigns. The DNC’s thresholds for the first fall debates are much steeper: Candidates need 2 percent in four national polls and 130,000 unique donors (including 400 donors apiece in 20 states).

The majority of the field is not on track to clear those hurdles before the September debate.

According to a POLITICO analysis, six Democratic presidential candidates have met both of the increased thresholds: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, O’Rourke, Sanders and Warren. O’Rourke became the latest candidate to qualify on Tuesday, after getting 2 percent in a CNN/University of New Hampshire poll.

A few other candidates have hit at least one of the two required thresholds. Booker has hit the polling threshold and is close to hitting the donor mark, his campaign has said. Castro and Yang, meanwhile, have each collected 130,000 donors already.

Klobuchar needs to hit 2 percent in one more poll and about get 30,000 more donors to secure her spot. Gabbard needs fewer than 29,000 additional donors — but she has yet to hit 2 percent in any qualifying polls for the September debate.

Even the candidates getting close to the thresholds are not guaranteed to make the future debates. And for everyone else, it will be an even steeper climb. Qualification for the September debate closes on Aug. 28.

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A Peculiar Solar System Has Scientists Rethinking Theories Of How Planets Form

A team of scientists used a telescope at the Calar Alto Observatory in Spain to detect a gas giant orbiting a tiny red star some 30 light-years from Earth.

An oddball solar system discovered not too far from our own is forcing astronomers to reexamine their ideas about how planets get created.

In the journal Science, researchers report they detected a small, dim red dwarf star, about 30 light-years from Earth, being tugged by the gravity of what must be a huge, Jupiter-like planet.

“It’s a very large planet, for such a small star,” says Juan Carlos Morales, an astrophysicist at the Institute of Space Studies of Catalonia in Barcelona who was part of the research team.

It’s so big, he says, that its existence can’t be explained by the conventional wisdom about how solar systems develop.

“This is the surprising thing,” Morales says. “We need another, an alternative formation scenario, to explain this system.”

Newly born stars are temporarily surrounded by a swirling disk of leftover gas and dust. Scientists have long thought that planets begin to grow when bits of solid material in this disk start to collide and sort of glom together.

These growing bodies can eventually become rocky planets. Or they can become rocky, icy cores that capture swirling gases and turn into Jupiter-like giants.

This basic understanding has held up even as astronomers have detected thousands of planets around distant stars in recent years. The vast array of known worlds includes gas giants, Earth-size planets that could be rocky, and planets of sizes unlike anything in our own solar system.

All of them could theoretically be explained by the traditional “core accretion,” or glomming together, model of planet-building — until now. “For the first time, we are sure that we have a planet that we cannot explain with the core accretion model,” Morales says.

But there’s another idea that potentially could explain this planet, a less popular one that’s been around since 1997. The astronomer who came up with it, Alan Boss of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington, D.C., says it “has not really been taken too seriously by very many people.”

Over two decades ago, as he thought about all the different ways a swirling disk of gas and dust might behave, Boss realized that areas of a disk could form dense clumps that might spontaneously contract and collapse into planets.

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“That could happen in something like 100 years,” Boss says.

Gradually sticking together enough material piece by piece to form a planet could take, say, 1 million years or more — way too long to create a Jupiter-size planet around a low-mass star like the red dwarf in this study, Boss says.

That’s because the creation of such a puny star would leave only a paltry disk of dust and gas that moved at a snail’s pace and eventually disappeared. “Just nothing happens within the time period over which we believe these disks last,” Boss explains. “You just run out of time.”

But it could be possible under his rapid planet-creation scenario. And he was gratified to learn that there’s now evidence that this actually might happen out in the universe.

“I’m still a little shocked that someone actually thinks that my ideas have some merit,” says Boss, laughing. “I’m sure I’ll get over it, but it’s very pleasant.”

Courtney Dressing, an astronomer at the University of California, Berkeley, says this new planet find, and its implications, are exciting.

She says the planet was discovered only because the research team used a new instrument that can detect worlds that orbit relatively far away from reddish stars.

“I think this is probably just the tip of the iceberg,” Dressing says. “I think knowing that these objects exist will force us to think more closely about how these planets formed in the first place.”

Scientists study planets outside our solar system in part because “you never know if you are going to find one that just bucks the trend, that is new and exciting in some way that sheds light on a problem in planetary science,” says Sara Seager, an astrophysicist and planetary scientist at MIT. “And I think this one really fits that category.”

She says that often in science, there are a couple of competing hypotheses to explain some phenomenon, such as how planets get created.

“It often turns out that both paradigms, or both concepts, are right, actually,” Seager notes. “Nature is smarter than we are. And it’s likely that if we humans can conceive of something happening, it likely does happen.”

Afghanistan Votes For President Amid Worries Of Fraud And Violence

Afghan workers move ballot boxes to trucks getting ready for Saturday’s presidential elections in Kabul, Afghanistan. The lead-up to the vote has been marred by violence and uncertainty.

Afghanistan is holding its fourth presidential election on Saturday, after repeated delays, a campaign marred by violence and the collapse of U.S. talks with the Taliban that left the Afghan government on the sidelines.

The chief contenders — incumbent President Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah — are likely giving voters a sense of déjà vu. The two men virtually tied in 2014, when then-Secretary of State John Kerry negotiated a compromise in which Ghani became president and Abdullah assumed the new and ostensibly co-equal post of chief executive.

That agreement five years ago averted the risk of a conflict, but neither candidate will consider sharing power again, says Bilal Sarwary, an Afghan journalist who previously ran for parliamentary elections in the northeastern Kunar province.

Instead of cooperation, Ghani and Abdullah have accused each other of scheming to undermine the election by fraud and to delegitimize the other candidate. A third prominent candidate, former warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, has hinted he might take up arms if he doesn’t like the results.

All of that has left many Afghans worried that these elections will trigger more instability instead of a clear mandate for the next leader, who will be expected to try to negotiate an end to conflict with the Taliban.

“There’s a risk that this process, a national process, will turn into a national crisis,” Sarwary says.

More than 9.6 million of Afghanistan’s 30 million people are registered to vote for one of 18 candidates in around 5,000 polling centers that will be protected by some 100,000 Afghan soldiers and policemen. At least 431 polling centers, serving more than half the country’s population, will remain closed because they are in areas under Taliban control. Hundreds more will be close because of security concerns.

“This is not an election for the whole country,” says Kate Clark, the co-director of Afghanistan Analysts Network, a Kabul-based policy research organization. “It will be an election for some citizens who will be able to get to vote.”

Campaigning this time around was muted amid concerns that the presidential elections could be postponed or even canceled, as yearlong negotiations between the Trump administration and the Taliban neared a conclusion. They were poised to conclude a deal that would allow most U.S. forces to withdraw from Afghanistan.

During that process, Washington’s envoy to the talks, Zalmay Khalilzad, hedged on whether the elections would go ahead — and Taliban negotiators vehemently opposed the vote. President Trump called off those negotiations on Sept. 7, just 21 days before Afghanistan’s election day.

“The negotiations between the U.S. and the Taliban kept putting the possibility of [an] interim government on the table, which meant that most of the campaigns didn’t really get going until late in the day,” Clark says.

Taliban insurgents killed more than 26 people in an attack at a campaign rally for Ghani in northern Afghanistan on Sept. 17. This week, several civilians, including a journalist, were killed in a Taliban attack near a Ghani campaign office in the southern city of Kandahar.

“Every time there is an election, Afghans sacrifice a lot in blood,” says Sarwary, the Afghan journalist.

Another source of concern is the voting process itself.

The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan and the Interior Ministry have come under criticism for issuing contradictory and unclear statements over how many voting stations will be closed, and which stations face a high security risk. It is also unclear what processes will be in place to prevent fraud if biometric systems fail on election day.

“There are worrying discrepancies,” Clark says of the election commission’s website. “The number of polling centers. The number of registered voters — it differs depending on each page you look at,” she says.

“Basically whenever you’ve got murkiness you’ve got a danger of fraud,” Clark adds.

Those concerns were underscored when 10 former election commission officials were jailed for five years each for abusing their authority and tampering with votes in parliamentary elections held in October 2018. The chairman of the electoral complaints commission was also jailed.

So far, the election commission has said that 431 polling centers will be closed. But 14 others may also be shuttered. Local media reported that between 1,000 and 1,500 will remain open, but face the risk of attack.

Some polling centers were expected to be open in areas under Taliban control, what Clark described as “really dodgy places … places where mass fraud is attempted.”

The lack of clarity led the U.S. Embassy in Kabul to issue a rebuke to the commission and the Interior Ministry on Twitter. “So that these brave voters do not go out in vain, @AfghanistanIEC and @moiafghanistan must clarify the locations of 445 closed #Afghanistan polling centers immediately.”

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also appears to have issued a veiled warning to Ghani. In a readout of a telephone call with the Afghan president, Pompeo said he underscored “the United States’ expectation that the conduct of candidates and government institutions holding the Afghanistan election should be beyond reproach to ensure the legitimacy of the outcome.”

But Ghani, Abdullah and the former warlord Hekmatyar have all already planted the seeds of doubt among voters about the transparency of the elections — seeds that the election commission’s chaotic messaging has helped to grow.

“They created an assumption that there will be fraud, and it will be committed by the government,” Sarwary says.

So, unless Ghani wins with an unambiguous mandate, his legitimacy as president is likely to be questioned and eroded from the beginning, he says.

Sarwary says a great concern is the lack of an interested and forceful American presence to mediate between candidates. He referred to Kerry’s mediation in 2014, which he says averted conflict. The Trump administration is not likely to offer that kind of hands-on negotiation, he says.

But Clark, the co-director of the policy research organization, says a hands-off approach is probably for the best.

“It’s not that Afghan backers are not bothered about who wins, or how the election goes, but it has to be sorted out by Afghans,” she says. “Otherwise, you can get a government that is weakened by the foreign hand that’s helped get it into the world.”

And while Western media have previously reported that Ghani is likely to be reelected, Clark urges caution.

“There are so many variables in an Afghan election,” she says. “Obviously democratic support is one,” she adds. “People vote with their group. There’s fraud. There’s coercion. And all those elements will play a role.”

NPR’s Abdul Sattar in Islamabad contributed to this report.

Bidens earned $15 million in 2 years after Obama administration

Former Vice President Joe Biden and his wife Jill earned more than $15 million during the two years after they left the White House, with the bulk of it coming from lucrative public speaking and book deals, according to new financial disclosures and tax returns released Tuesday.

The disclosures offer a new, more comprehensive look at the money the Bidens amassed since leaving the White House — a sharp uptick from where their finances stood in the final years of the Obama administration and Biden’s time in the Senate, when he referred to himself as "middle-class Joe" and put a working-class life story at the center of his political campaigns.

The new documents show Joe Biden earned more than $4 million in late 2017 and 2018 from giving more than four dozen speeches, banking up to $235,000 for one appearance. He was paid $540,484 for in role at the University of Pennsylvania. And he owns a corporation, established to handle his post-White House speaking and book deals, now valued at between $1 and $5 million.

Biden was elected to the Senate in 1972, weeks before he turned 30, and he spent the next 44 years on a federal government salary. He filed disclosure forms as vice president showing that he and Jill had $303,000 to $1 million in assets and liabilities between $560,000 and $1.2 million.

But in April 2017, months after leaving the vice presidency, both Bidens signed a multi-book deal with Flatiron Books, for Joe Biden to write two books and Jill Biden to write one. Soon after, the Bidens bought a $2.7 million in Rehoboth Beach, Del. The house has six bedrooms and multiple decks and adjoins a state park, according to The Daily Times. The home in Rehoboth Beach is the second home owned by the Bidens: They purchased their first, in Wilmington, Del., in 1996.

In their post-White House life, the Bidens also began renting a home in tony McLean, Va., a suburb outside Washington.

This newfound wealth could provide ammunition for rivals hoping to bash Biden as an insider who has lost touch with people outside the Beltway, though he is not the only wealthy candidate running for president while vowing to help lower- and middle-class Americans: Other candidates including Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and even Bernie Sanders are millionaires. But Biden in recent years vastly out-earned his top rivals. (Self-funding candidates like former Rep. John Delaney and investor Tom Steyer have fortunes that far surpass other Democrats running for president.)

The Bidens earned $11 million in 2017 and $4.6 million in 2018, a big boost from the $396,000 salary they had earned in 2016.

Speaking fees were another major source of income. Biden disclosed payments for 49 speeches, with fees ranging from $8,040 for a book event at a Miami Art Fair to $235,000 for a book tour "VIP experience" in 2017. Jill Biden disclosed 18 speaking engagements totaling $700,000, with her speeches commanding between $25,000 and $66,000 apiece in fees.

Meanwhile, the University of Pennsylvania paid Biden more than $540,000, according to his disclosure. Biden served at the Annenberg School and School of Arts and Sciences and is listed as a “Benjamin Franklin Presidential Practice Professor,” according to the university. Biden was separately involved in the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, from which he took a leave of absence once he launched his presidential campaign.

The tax returns released by Biden’s presidential campaign show the Bidens paid a federal income tax rate of 33.9 percent in 2017 and 33.4 percent in 2018, for a total income tax of $3.7 million and $1.5 million during those years. They gave away a combined $1.3 million to charity in 2017 and 2018.

The new documents, which include Biden’s mandatory financial disclosure and two new years of tax returns voluntarily released by the Biden campaign, do not show exactly how much the Bidens made from signing book deals, and other details about the Biden’s income may similarly be obscured. That’s because the Bidens established corporations to handle their book and speaking fees and pay personal staff in their post-White House life. In some cases, the forms reported information about the corporations and not the direct sources of money.

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Trump Asked Ukrainian President To Investigate Biden; DOJ Says No Charges

President Trump speaks to the media at the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday in New York City.

Updated at 5:25 p.m. ET

President Trump told Ukraine’s president that “a lot of people want to find out” about the activities of former Vice President Joe Biden’s family in Ukraine and asked its leader to be in touch with lawyer Rudy Giuliani and Attorney General Bill Barr.

That’s according to a briefing for correspondents about the contents of the July 25 phone call, on Wednesday at the Justice Department.

Read the partial White House transcript about the conversation here.

The conversation raised concerns by a whistleblower that Trump may have broken the law by asking for foreign help in the presidential campaign. But the Justice Department concluded that based on the evidence that’s available, prosecutors “did not and could not make out a criminal campaign finance violation.”

Under the law, a “thing of value” under discussion has to be in some way quantifiable, and the Justice Department couldn’t find that here, officials said.

Even so, the official account of the phone conversation confirms the kernel of the story that has brought Washington to a fever pitch over an impeachment inquiry into Trump: The American president asked the Ukrainian president for help with political ammunition against his potential 2020 election rival.

“I would like you to do us a favor,” Trump asked President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, according to the official account released on Wednesday.

Later in the conversation, according to the memo, Trump said:

“I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation in Ukraine … There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that. So whatever you can do with the attorney general would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it … it sounds horrible to me.”

Zelenskiy told Trump that he would appoint the next top prosecutor who might be responsible for prosecuting corruption and that “he or she will look into the situation, specifically to the company that you mentioned in this issue.”

Trump then told the Ukrainian president that he would have Giuliani and Barr make contact with him and that “we will get to the bottom of it. I’m sure you will figure it out.”

Trump, on his visit to the United Nations on Wednesday, scoffed that the Ukraine affair is a “witch hunt” and that Democrats are worried about being defeated in the 2020 election.

Trump pointed to what he called the successes of his first term, saying, “We’ve got the strongest economy we’ve ever had.”

Flow of assistance was cut off

The president’s July conversation followed moves by the White House to stanch the flow of military assistance for Ukraine that Washington had been providing since the armed incursion by Russian forces in 2014.

Zelenskiy raised the military assistance in the call with Trump, according to the White House account. He thanked the American president and said “specifically we are almost ready to buy more Javelins from the United States for defense purposes.”

That’s a reference to the American guided anti-tank missile Javelin, built by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. The U.S. began delivering them to Ukraine’s military in 2018.

Trump responded to Zelenskiy with his request for a “favor,” mentioning the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike and a “server” — likely an allusion to the cyberattack against the Democratic National Committee in 2016.

The president also alluded to the testimony of former Justice Department special counsel Robert Mueller, who had appeared in Congress the day before.

Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian officials were “blindsided” by the interruption in American assistance, according to The New York Times.

Other agencies in Washington were not briefed about any reason for the pause in the assistance, nor was Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. After the matter came to the attention of more members of Congress, the assistance was restored earlier this month.

Worries inside the spy world

The whistleblower within the intelligence community brought the matter to the attention of its official watchdog, raising the prospect that Trump’s conversation might have violated U.S. law.

The inspector general concluded that it rose to the level of an “urgent concern” because the intelligence community is responsible for safeguarding elections.

Then the matter was referred to the Justice Department, officials said, which reached its conclusion about the paucity of evidence that a campaign finance law had been broken.

Justice Department officials also say Barr, the attorney general, learned about the conversation several weeks after it took place but has not spoken about it with Trump and was never asked by Trump to contact anyone in Ukraine.

The DOJ officials said Barr has not spoken about the Ukraine affair with Giuliani, either.

Giuliani, meanwhile, has acknowledged that he has been closely involved with talks with Ukrainians about launching or reviving some kind of investigation into Hunter Biden’s time doing in business in Ukraine.

Former Vice President Biden said Tuesday that neither he nor his son have done anything wrong and he decried what he called the smears and conspiracy theories that were being propounded by the White House.

Trump is guilty of abusing his office, Biden said, and if he continues what Biden called his “stonewalling” of Congress, the former vice president said he’d support impeachment.

“It is a tragedy for this country that our president put personal politics above his sacred oath,” Biden said in a statement on Wednesday. “This is not a Republican issue or a Democratic issue. It is a national security issue. It is a test of our democratic values. Congress must pursue the facts and quickly take prompt action to hold Donald Trump accountable.”

House Democrats say they’ve agreed to initiate a new phase of their impeachment inquiry, although it isn’t clear how soon that might result in new action in the Congress or against Trump.

Backstory

The dispute over the whistleblower’s complaint began when House intelligence committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., learned that it had been filed but not what it contained.

Schiff and other members of Congress argued the administration had no right under the law to withhold the matter from the committees of oversight.

Notwithstanding the intelligence community watchdog’s conclusion that the complaint was an “urgent concern,” the Justice Department opined that the complaint didn’t arise “in connection with intelligence activity,” DOJ officials said on Wednesday.

That is the standard under the law that governs the relationship with Congress, the officials said, and that is why the Justice Department took the position that the administration did not have to give the document to lawmakers.

Schiff’s complaints about the administration’s positions started a snowball that resulted in growing attention to the whistleblower case and then press reports that helped shape public understanding about the Ukraine affair.

The temperature rose in Washington to such a point that Trump — who says that he has not done anything wrong and there was no “quid pro quo” in his discussion with Zelenskiy — felt obliged to release the official White House records about his call.

What still isn’t clear is whether the whistleblower complaint itself might become public. The congressional intelligence committees were expected to be able to review it on Wednesday afternoon and then get copies of their own on Thursday.

Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire is scheduled to appear before the House and Senate intelligence committees on Thursday.

The morning session, before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, is expected to be open. The afternoon session before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence is expected to be closed.

Complaint called “partisan”

Trump and White House officials have said they don’t know the identity of the whistleblower, but the president nonetheless dismissed the person’s actions as “partisan.”

And officials at the Justice Department on Wednesday affirmed that the intelligence community’s inspector general found “some indicia of an arguable political bias on the part of the complainant in favor of a rival political candidate.”

At the same time, the IG concluded that the complaint’s allegations nonetheless appeared “credible.”

Trump’s allies, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., have argued that the “partisan” nature of the complaint must be taken into account in understanding the full story.

This is the result of someone who wasn’t personally involved with Trump’s call getting a secondhand briefing about it and then trying to help Democrats, Graham and others argue.

Your Guide To The 3rd Democratic Debate

Democratic presidential hopefuls (from left): Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., onstage before the July debate.

There are now less than five months to go before the first votes are cast in the Democratic presidential nominating contest. So the spotlight is going to be even hotter on the 10 candidates who made the cut for Thursday’s debate in Houston. (Follow NPR’s live analysis here.)

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is ascendant with more Democrats saying they like her than any other candidate, but former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead in the polls. So what might set them apart, what could be the flashpoints Thursday night, and can any of the other candidates break through?

Here are some key logistical questions, followed by political ones:

When is the debate? Thursday from 8-11 p.m. ET

What channel is it on? ABC and Univision (with Spanish translation)

Who are the moderators? ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, David Muir, Linsey Davis and Univision’s Jorge Ramos

Who’s on the stage? Biden, Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Kamala Harris of California, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Warren, as well as South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Obama Housing Secretary Julián Castro, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas and tech investor Andrew Yang.

What were the qualifications to get into this debate? 2% in at least four Democratic polls, either nationally or in early states, as well as 130,000 donors from at least 20 states and at least 400 in each state.

Here are five political questions:

1. What will the Biden-Warren dynamic be like?

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren shakes hands with supporters after speaking at the New Hampshire Democratic Party Convention in Manchester, N.H., last week.

There’s lots being made of the fact that this is the first time during this presidential campaign that Biden and Warren will share the debate stage. The question is whether they engage — and on what?

They signaled that they might mix it up. Warren has gotten attention for her myriad plans, but a Biden adviser told CNN that the former vice president will likely argue in the debate that “we need more than plans.” One area ripe for debate is on bankruptcy law, an issue where they have a history.

2. Can Biden take the heat — again?

Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., as seen on televisions in the press room during the Democratic primary debate in Detroit, Mich.

In the first two debates, varying candidates have picked fights with Biden — Harris on busing, Booker on criminal justice, and so on. And he’ll likely be the focus of criticism from other candidates because of his continued lead in the polls.

But despite some missteps on the campaign trail and a lackluster first debate, his brand has shown resiliency. He not only leads the race nationally and in many state polls, but he’s also extremely well liked among the Democratic base, something you’d likely never know if you only read Twitter, a point his campaign makes repeatedly.

That makes him a target for the other candidates, who have to be wondering what it will take to dislodge him. Still, Democratic strategists see Biden as a fragile front-runner, and he has to have solid outings in these coming debates that will likely get more attention than the first couple of rounds.

3. Will the candidates double down on positions unpopular with general-election voters?

A lot of the moderate Democratic candidates are not on the stage for this debate— Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and former Maryland Rep. John Delaney did not qualify, and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper dropped out to run for the Senate.

That means the progressives are likely to again target Biden and focus on issues unpopular outside of Democrats, like “Medicare for All” as a replacement to private insurance, health care for immigrants in the country illegally and decriminalizing border crossings.

4. Do Sanders and Warren maintain their nonaggression pact?

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks in front of the Colorado State Capitol earlier this week.

Warren is getting lots of attention and was not only the most popular candidate among Democrats in the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, she’s now caught up with — and even passed in some instances — fellow progressive Sanders in an average of the polls.

That has to grate on Sanders, even if people close to him continue to say that he sees Warren as an ally for the kind of change he wants to see in the country. They have maintained that Sanders will not go after Warren unless they are the last two standing, but they also privately point out differences, such as on foreign policy and party politics. It’s probably not the time yet for Sanders to need to go after Warren, but could some prickliness begin to emerge?

Credit: NPR

5. What kind of chances do candidates needing a breakout take?

If a candidate hasn’t had a moment yet, they now have a chance to do something to gain attention and create a spark for their campaign before a large audience.

Yang, for one, is promising to do something no one’s done. What exactly? No one knows, but Yang is hoping you tune in.

At the same time, it’s not clear how many people will tune in. The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that more people said they weren’t going to watch (42%) than said they would (38%).