Poll: Democrats trail Trump in Wisconsin, lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania

Democrats may face an uphill battle in Wisconsin when the party’s eventual nominee goes up against President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in November, a new poll suggests, while other battlegrounds state of Pennsylvania and Michigan are shaping up to be more friendly territory.

A Quinnipiac University Poll survey released on Thursday shows Trump trouncing six Democratic presidential contenders in head-to-head match-ups in Wisconsin, one of the so-called blue wall states carried by the real estate mogul in the 2016 election.

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE, the two candidates in closest competition with the president, are running 7 points behind him in the state, while Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) and Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-Minn.) appear to have the toughest odds, trailing Trump in hypothetical match-ups by 10 points and 11 points, respectively. 

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But in Pennsylvania, another state that flipped for Trump after former President Obama won it in 2008 and 2012, the Democratic candidates’ prospects look brighter. Biden leads the president in the Keystone State, 50 percent to 42 percent. Meanwhile, Klobuchar and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg lead Trump by 7 points and 6 points, respectively.

In fact, each of the six Democratic candidates included in the Quinnipiac poll lead Trump in hypothetical match-ups in Pennsylvania. 

In Michigan, another longtime blue state carried by Trump in 2016, the Democratic candidates appear to have an advantage, though the race against Trump is tighter. Sanders and Bloomberg carry the largest leads in that state, with the former topping Trump 48 percent to 43 percent and the latter leading 47 percent to 42 percent.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar face the toughest challenge against Trump in Michigan. Both lead by only a single percentage point, according to the poll. 

Taken together, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania represent part of what Democrats see as a crucial path to victory in the 2020 election. They were considered part of the party’s traditional “blue wall” — states that had been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential election for more than 20 years, and which Democrats believed would help secure Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE’s victory over Trump — but the states shocked party officials when the Republican emerged victorious in all three in 2016.

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Since then, Democrats have sought to rebuild their coalitions in those states. In the 2018 midterm elections, the party flipped four GOP-held House seats in Pennsylvania. That same year, they gained two Republican-held seats in Michigan districts that Trump previously carried.

Trump remains more popular than not in Wisconsin, however. The Quinnipiac poll showed his approval in the state at 51 percent, while his disapproval registered at 46 percent.

In Michigan and Pennsylvania, however, Trump’s approval is underwater. Fifty-four percent of Michigan voters said they disapprove of the president’s handling of his job, while in Pennsylvania, that number was 52 percent, the poll found.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 845 registered voters in Michigan, 849 in Pennsylvania and 823 in Wisconsin from Feb. 12-18. The margin of error for the samples in each state is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

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Sanders won't attend AIPAC conference, accuses it of providing platform for 'bigotry'

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) blasted the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) on Sunday in a statement confirming that he would not attend the pro-Israel organization’s annual conference.

Sanders tweeted that he would not attend the conference due to AIPAC’s connection to “leaders who express bigotry and oppose basic Palestinian rights,” an apparent reference to the current administration of Israel headed by Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin (Bibi) NetanyahuMORE, whom Sanders has repeatedly criticized in the past.

“The Israeli people have the right to live in peace and security. So do the Palestinian people. I remain concerned about the platform AIPAC provides for leaders who express bigotry and oppose basic Palestinian rights. For that reason I will not attend their conference,” he wrote.

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“As president, I will support the rights of both Israelis and Palestinians and do everything possible to bring peace and security to the region,” Sanders continued.

Sanders, who is Jewish, has criticized both AIPAC and Netanyahu in the past and has referred to Netanyahu as a “right-wing politician” and his government as “racist.”

“I am not anti-Israel. But the fact of the matter is Netanyahu is a right-wing politician who I think is treating the Palestinian people extremely unfairly,” Sanders said last year during a town hall event hosted by CNN.

“What I believe is not radical. I just believe that the United States should deal with the Middle East on a level playing field basis,” he added at the time.

AIPAC officials responded on Sunday to Sanders’s remarks, pointing out that he has never attended the conference in the past and decrying the “odious” accusations as “truly shameful.”

Sanders, Biden tied in Texas ahead of Super Tuesday: poll

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE (D) are tied in a new poll of the Democratic primary race in Texas ahead of Super Tuesday.

A survey from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) found Sanders and Biden with 24 percent of the vote each, while former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg (D) sits at third place in the state with 17 percent.

Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) holds fourth place in the poll at 14 percent, while former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE (D) sat at fifth place in the poll with support from just 10 percent of likely primary voters.

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The poll is a boon for Sanders, whose campaign has sought to show that the Vermont progressive can win over conservative voters and moderates as he cements his place as the front-runner for the nomination amid fears from some Democratic Party members that his brand of democratic socialism would be unpalatable in swing states.

The survey also showed a clear disadvantage for Biden’s campaign in the form of Bloomberg, whose presence in the race appears to be primarily siphoning votes from the former vice president. The PPP survey also asked voters for their first choice in the primary race were Bloomberg not running, and in that hypothetical scenario, Biden leads Sanders in the state by 6 points, 31 percent to 25 percent.

PPP’s survey tabulated results from 1,045 likely Democratic primary voters in Texas between Feb. 24-25 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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Sanders raises staggering $46 million in February

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) raised more than $46 million from approximately 2.2 million donations in February, his 2020 presidential campaign announced Sunday. 

The haul, which came during a month in which Sanders cemented himself as the front-runner to win the Democratic nomination, represents the best fundraising month of Sanders’s campaign. The previous high came in January, when the campaign reeled in $25 million from more than 648,000 people. In total, Sanders has raised more than $167 million, far outpacing the other Democratic candidates. 

The Sanders campaign said it raised more than $4.5 million on Saturday alone, making it the best fundraising day since the Vermont senator launched his presidential bid in February 2019. The campaign added that more than 350,000 people donated to his campaign for the first time last month. 

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“The senator’s multigenerational, multiracial working class coalition keeps fueling his campaign for transformational change a few bucks at a time,” Sanders’s campaign manager, Faiz Shakir, said in a statement. “We’re especially proud that of the more than 2 million donations we received this month, over 1.4 million were from voters in states that vote on Super Tuesday.”

The February haul came as the Sanders campaign announced that it would make another slate of television ad buys in states with primaries between March 10 and March 17, including Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Washington Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio. 

Sanders finished February as the nominal favorite to win the Democratic nomination after victories in New Hampshire and Nevada and a virtual tie with former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE in Iowa. 

He finished in second in South Carolina on Saturday, though, earning far less support than former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE. 

“I want to congratulate Joe Biden on his big win tonight, and now we head to Super Tuesday and Virginia,” Sanders said while speaking to a massive crowd of supporters at Virginia Wesleyan University on Saturday night. 

The Hill's Campaign Report: Warren exits, setting up Sanders, Biden battle

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail. 

 

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LEADING THE DAY:

WARREN OUT: Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) announced she was suspending her presidential campaign on Thursday after a number of disappointing finishes in the early primary states and on Super Tuesday. 

A number of women activists and lawmakers online mourned the loss of Warren, who was the last major female candidate in the race. 

“This election cycle in particular has … presented very legitimate questions about the challenges of women running for president of the United States,” Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.), who also ran for president, told reporters on Capitol Hill.

House Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiTrump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Pelosi: Georgia primary ‘disgrace’ could preview an election debacle in November MORE (D-Calif.) also reacted to the news, saying that she often wishes she was not the most powerful woman in government. “Every time I get introduced as the most powerful woman, I almost cry, because I wish it was not true,” Pelosi said on Thursday.

Warren’s absence from the race leaves former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE and Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) as the two top contenders. The upcoming face-off between the two will likely illustrate the deep divide between centrists and progressives within the Democratic Party. 

Warren declined to endorse a candidate on Thursday.

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The Massachusetts Democrat is closely aligned with the progressive left, but an endorsement for Sanders is not certain. Divisions opened up between Sanders and Warren throughout the primary season, and there are some hard feelings to sort through as progressives plot a path forward.

The left does not have much time if it hopes to stop Biden, who has been gaining strength due to support from black voters and suburban moderates.

Biden is looking at a massive win in Mississippi on Tuesday, and if Sanders doesn’t pull off a resounding victory in Michigan, the race might be over very soon.

— Julia Manchester

 

READ MORE: 

On the Trail: Warren falls victim to the electability obsession, by The Hill’s Reid Wilson

Warren says she doesn’t plan to immediately endorse in 2020 race, by Max

Warren drops out of presidential race, via Julia

Harris highlights ‘challenges’ for women after Warren drops out, by Jonathan 

 

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FROM THE TRAIL:

Sanders is bailing on a planned rally in Mississippi to campaign in Michigan, a sign that his campaign is pivoting to the Midwest after a series of stinging losses in the South, The New York Times’ Sydney Ember reports. For Sanders, a strong showing in the Midwest may be his last best hope in the Democratic nominating contest, especially with the primary race heading towards a handful of other states that appear less favorable to Sanders, like Florida. The move is also something of an acknowledgement by Sanders that his standing among black voters hasn’t improved much since 2016. In Mississippi, where he lost badly to Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE in 2016, black voters are expected to make up a majority of the primary electorate. 

 

Still, Sanders is facing an increasingly urgent situation in Michigan, which holds its primary on March 10. A Detroit News poll released on Tuesday showed him trailing Biden by 6 points. And the former vice president recently scored the endorsement of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, The Hill’s Tax Axelrod reports.

 

PERSPECTIVES: 

Keith Naughton: ‘Michigan or bust’ for Sanders – and it’s going to be a bust

Lili Loofbourow: The most diverse field in history has come down to this

Richard Wolffe: Biden’s race to lose

 

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FROM CONGRESS AND THE STATES:

Republican lawmakers see Biden’s re-emergence as the front-runner in the Democratic presidential primary race as a setback in their efforts to recapture the House and hold control of the Senate, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports. GOP senators conceded on Wednesday, the day after Super Tuesday, that they would prefer Sanders win the nomination, believing that he’d be an easier candidate to run against in the fall. “I think Bernie is the easiest to contrast with. Biden would be a little harder to contrast with,” said Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op MORE (R-S.C.). “Truly, I think it’s better for us for Bernie to be the nominee in terms of down-ballot.”

 

New polls from the left-leaning outlet Public Policy polling find Democrats with a small lead over Republicans in key Senate races in Maine, Colorado, North Carolina and Arizona. Read the memo here.

 

POLL WATCH:

REUTERS/IPSOS – NATIONAL

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Biden: 34 percent (+16)
Sanders: 30 percent (+1) 

Gabbard: 1 percent (+/-0)

 

ST. PETE POLLS – FLORIDA 

Biden: 61 percent (+27)

Sanders: 12 percent (-1)

 

MARK YOUR CALENDARS:

March 10:

-Idaho primaries

-Michigan primaries

-Mississippi primaries

-Missouri primaries

-North Dakota Democratic caucuses

-Washington State primaries

 

March 15:

-Eleventh Democratic presidential primary debate

 

March 17:

-Arizona Democratic primary

-Florida primaries

-Illinois primaries

-Ohio primaries

 

March 24:

-Georgia primaries

 

March 29:

Puerto Rico Democratic primary

 

ONE FUN THING:

Former Democratic presidential contender Michael BloombergMichael BloombergEngel scrambles to fend off primary challenge from left It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process Liberals embrace super PACs they once shunned MORE mixed “Star Wars” and politics after he dropped out of the presidential race on Wednesday, tweeting a video of Jedi knight Obi-Wan Kenobi taking on Darth Vader, in response to a tweet from President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE. 

 

The tweet appeared to cast Bloomberg as Obi-Wan and Trump as Darth Vader, which has us wondering, is Joe Biden Luke Skywalker? 

Anyways, President Trump hit back on Twitter today, this time tweeting a video of “Spaceballs” protagonist Lone Starr — edited to have Trump’s face — easily holding back antagonist Dark Helmet — doctored to have Bloomberg’s face.

 

And while the likelihood of these two having an intergalactic showdown is slim to none, Bloomberg has already started his anti-Trump operation ahead of the general election. The Washington Post first reported that Bloomberg is planning an organization targeting six states: Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania, that would both attack President Trump on key issues and support the Democratic nominee for president.

 

We’ll have the latest campaign news for you tomorrow! May the Force be with you. 

 

WWE confirms Women's title match order for SummerSlam

A Beat the Clock Challenge on tonight’s SmackDown decided the order for the Women’s title matches at SummerSlam.

Bayley’s SmackDown Women’s Championship defense against Asuka at Sunday’s pay-per-view will take place prior to Asuka challenging Sasha Banks for the Raw Women’s Championship. Banks defeated Naomi in 3:39 in their Beat the Clock Challenge match on SmackDown tonight. Bayley then lost her Beat the Clock match against Naomi with 1:44 left.

Asuka appeared after the Beat the Clock Challenge and cut a promo vowing to become the empress of every title. She laid out Banks with a kick and then attacked Bayley. Bayley bailed and initially went past Banks but then came back to check on her.

Asuka won a triple brand battle royal on SmackDown last Friday to become Bayley’s SummerSlam challenger. Asuka had already defeated Bayley on Raw in a match where the stipulation was that Asuka would challenge Banks at SummerSlam if she won.

Corey Graves interviewed Banks and Bayley on SmackDown tonight and asked about dissension between them and which match would happen first at SummerSlam. Naomi then interrupted them, setting up the Beat the Clock Challenge.

Here’s the updated list of announced matches for SummerSlam:

WWE Champion Drew McIntyre defending against Randy Orton
Universal Champion Braun Strowman defending against “The Fiend” Bray Wyatt
Raw Women’s Champion Sasha Banks defending against Asuka
SmackDown Women’s Champion Bayley defending against Asuka
Raw Tag Team Champions The Street Profits defending against Andrade & Angel Garza
United States Champion Apollo Crews defending against MVP
Street fight: Dominik Mysterio vs. Seth Rollins
No DQ, loser leaves WWE match: Mandy Rose vs. Sonya Deville