Can the Islanders finish off a four-game sweep of the Penguins on the road Tuesday night (MSG, MSG+, 7:30 p.m.)?
Betting markets are skeptical. But, they’ve been skeptical of the Islanders since before the NHL playoff series began.
– Pittsburgh closed as a -135 favorite to win the series before it began, despite not enjoying home-ice advantage.
– Pittsburgh closed as a -125 road favorite in Game 2 after dropping the series opener. Some sharps (professional bettors) and most squares (recreational bettors) couldn’t resist taking the “superior” team to zig zag in a bounce-back spot.
– Pittsburgh closed as a whopping -200 favorites at home in Game 3. Bettors thinking “there’s no way the Penguins are going to lose three in a row to the Islanders” learned once again that bad roulette strategies can be very painful at sports books.
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There’s plenty of time before they drop the puck for game-day lines to settle. You can be sure that Pittsburgh will be a pricey favorite once again Tuesday with its backs against the wall. Pricey favorites have been awful this postseason! No team laying -200 or higher has won a game yet.
Tampa Bay (-240) lost to Columbus, 4-3; Tampa Bay (-320) lost to Columbus, 5-1; Calgary (-230) lost to Colorado, 3-2, in overtime; Pittsburgh (-200) lost to the Islanders, 4-1
That’s a composite record of zero wins and 9.9 losses in real money terms. Hockey is played on ice, not chalk (Vegas slang for favorites because odds used to be written on chalkboards).
Thus far versus the Islanders, Pittsburgh’s been outplayed emphatically when it was time to perform. The Penguins have been outscored 6-2 at even strength over the last two games.
When analyzing the NHL playoffs, professional bettors look for teams that can control the flow of play. Luck can play a big role in any game or series because many teams are so evenly matched. Those that create the most opportunities have the best chance of overcoming variance and grinding out victories.
Check out how the underdog Islanders have stayed in control of the last two games while expressing surprising superiority:
– Game 2 shots: Islanders 34, Penguins 33; expected goals: Islanders 3.7, Penguins 2.6.
– Game 3 shots: Islanders 36, Penguins 26; expected goals: Islanders 3.5, Penguins 2.2.
Those “expected goals” calculations are from respected hockey analytics site Natural Stat Trick. Nobody can make the case that the Islanders haven’t earned their series edge. It’s common for the trailing team in a game to win shot counts because it’s aggressively trying to rally. The Isles are winning shot counts from ahead.
That makes the Isles prohibitive market favorites to eventually advance, even if they don’t finish off a sweep. Still at least two home games at the raucous Nassau Coliseum ahead if needed.