The Boston Bruins (-155) beat the Carolina Hurricanes, 5-2, on Thursday night to take a 1-0 series lead in the Eastern Conference finals. If you watched, you know that the game was much closer than the final score suggests. Carolina was the more aggressive team much of the night. Boston pulled away in the third period thanks to two power-play goals and an empty-netter.
The Western Finals begin Saturday (NBC, 8 p.m.) when the St. Louis Blues visit the San Jose Sharks. San Jose will likely close in the -130 to -140 range in Game 1, closer to -130 for the series. (Boston entered its series at -160 to advance.)
If you’re a longtime hockey bettor, you know margins can be razor thin in the playoffs. Teams do their best in a parity-packed sport to create opportunities, then cash them in. Upsets in games and series are common.
Underdog bettors have gotten the best of it so far this postseason. The top point earners from the regular season in each conference, Tampa Bay and Calgary, were eliminated in the first round. Respected contenders Pittsburgh and Vegas also were knocked out early.
A stat that captures the tightness of playoff hockey is “expected goals.” We tabulated second-round totals from data at hockey analytics website Natural Stat Trick:
- Boston outscored Columbus, 18-11, but the Blue Jackets actually owned “expected goals” 16.66 to 15.59. Great defense and goaltending from the Bruins helped overcome a virtual dead heat in flow of play.
- The Hurricanes outscored the Islanders, 13-5, but the Isles won “expected goals” 11.62 to 11.29. There was not enough punch in the Islanders’ lineup to find the back of the net. Carolina was nowhere near as dominant as a sweep would suggest.
- The Sharks outscored the Avalanche, 20-18, on a similar “expected goals” count of 21.08 to 20.21.
- The Blues outscored the Stars, 18-17, but should have been more dominant with an “expected goals” edge of 20.60 to 16.92.
All four survivors struggled on power plays in the last round: Boston 3-for-21, San Jose 2-for-19, St. Louis 2-for-22, Carolina 1-for-13. Such a dynamic helps keep games close.
Teams that had earned home-ice advantage were given slight nods in futures prices to win the Stanley Cup. Here were odds entering the conference finals from the Westgate in Las Vegas, along with equivalent win percentages: Boston 9/5 (36 percent), San Jose 12/5 (29 percent), St. Louis 11/4 (27 percent), Carolina 4/1 (20 percent). (Those add up to 112 percent because sports books build a universe larger than 100 percent to create a house edge.)
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